Doing CANDU new
ambitions for our nuclear renaissance soar as new builds take a step forward
Canada’s indigenous reactor design is news this week for the best of reasons: AtkinsRéalis, the current owner of Candu Energy Inc., announced its “contract win to build two new multi-billion dollar CANDU nuclear reactors.” Not in the news, but as encouraging, The third, of four, CANDU reactor refurbishments at the Darlington Nuclear Generating Stations progressed to the reactor sending electricity to the grid – ahead of schedule with the overall project remaining on budget. It’s taken a couple of decades of such news from reactor operators, but the signing of contracts advancing new builds in Romania could signal the beginning of a new period of expansion for Canadian deuterium uranium (CANDU) reactors. What would that require?
A new era of building needs a first customer, and Romania’s nuclear system is ideal due to their history with the CANDU technology. Cernavoda-1 entered operation 3 years after the completion of Darlington NGS, in 1996. The first Romania CANDU has a lifetime load factor[i] of 90%. The second Romanian CANDU entered commercial operation in 2007 (the last CANDU to do so), and it has a lifetime load factor of 93.6%. The new builds of CANDU EC6 are for a very competent customer, which it’s hoped will lead to brand new customers for CANDU reactors.
[Joe St. Julian, President, Nuclear at AtkinsRéalis] said the Cernavodă project was an important step for the company in eastern Europe, one of four regions it has targeted for contracts, including Australia and the Indo-Pacific.[ii]
The new builds were expected, with the announcement packaged for the UN’s COP29 Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. At another gathering, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ meeting Canada’s Prime Minister is reported to have discussed “deepening commercial connections” in areas “such as nuclear power”, with the Republic of Korea (another CANDU country). The exact same wording appears in the Prime Minister’s news release of a meeting at the conference with the leader of Indonesia. Earlier in the week, AtkinsRéalis’ VP for Market and Business Development, former Ontario Minister Todd Smith, was at a Nuclear Supply Chain Forum in the Philippines. Australia’s poll-leading opposition party, the Liberal-National Coalition is promising to end that countries ban and locate new nuclear reactors at, primarily, old coal sites.
A presentation accompanying the release of AtkinsRéalis 2024 3rd quarter earnings also showed the potential for 2 more new 700 MW class EC6 builds at the Qinshan site in China. The Enhanced CANDU6 (EC6) is the evolution of CANDU 6’s already operating at capacity factors in China, Romania and South Korea.
Prospects shown for Canada all mention the larger Monark model currently under design. The first age of building out CANDUs in the province of Ontario, overwhelming the main jurisdiction – and home – of the technology, ended with the Darlington NGS. The 4 reactors at the Darlington site were larger than the CANDU 6’s with reference unit power of 878 MW. The MONARK may be considered to be the evolution of this larger model – and the implication is the larger Monark (1,000 MW) will be the first offering on future international prospects.
This flurry of activity is not without good reasons which can be found in the history of CANDU.
Ontario, the home of CANDU, assembled a Royal Commission on Electricity Planning in the 1970’s. By the time the commission delivered its final report in 1980 every reactor active in Ontario was already planned (although Darlington was not yet at a point of no return on Darlington’s completion.
…the "minimum order level" for economic viability of the Canadian nuclear-components industry was assumed to be 1,200 MW per year … Unless there is a marked increase in foreign exports of CANDU, it is impossible that this minimum order level will be achieved
The report was prescient, or negatively impacted nuclear to an extent that made it correct. 25 CANDU’s entered operation from 1967 through 1993, all but 2 were in Canada. Another 7 entered operation by 2007: 3 more in South Korea, 2 in China and 2 in Romania. The pipeline ran dry and Atomic Energy of Canada did not survive through 2011, when its reactor business was sold off to SNC Lavalin (now AtkinsRéalis). Building an order book is a perquisite for survival.
Reporting on this week’s contract award the Globe and Mail’s reporters noted the scope of business hoped for:
AtkinsRéalis estimates that countries will need 1,000 new nuclear reactors by 2050, according to information from its most recent investor day. Assuming the company’s Candu solution nabs 5 per cent of that business (there are six large-scale reactor technologies globally, including Candu), it pegs the market potential at $750-billion.
50 reactors in 25 years. 2 each year is ambitious, but reasonable given what was once considered a “minimum order level”. The goal seems suddenly achievable as markets emerge. Many countries committed to increasing nuclear power at the COP28, and more countries committed to that goal this past week at COP29. History indicates aside from a market for reactors, suppliers also need strong pollical support in their home base, and that is now present in Canada in the political parties likely to form governments. The province of Ontario, currently government by the Progressive Conservative party, has been touting Ontario’s Nuclear Advantage in trade missions of its own, which in recent months included signing agreements in Romania, and just this past week Ontario’s Minister of Energy and Electrification completed “ a successful trade mission to Poland and Estonia to strengthen existing relationships and showcase how Ontario and its nuclear supply chain can help countries around the world meet increasing energy demands.” Federally the country is government by the Liberal Party. The Prime Minister’s office summarized its activity supporting Canada’s nuclear industry in pursuing new markets in its final communication at the end of the APEC summit:
“Prime Minister Trudeau announced Canada’s vision to strengthen nuclear partnerships in the Indo-Pacific through the Canadian Trade Gateway. Announced as part of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), the Gateway will leverage Canadian expertise to address the growing demand for nuclear energy and science across economies. The nuclear sector has a growing role in the health, food, and agriculture industries – and are a key pillar in building energy security, developing and adopting artificial intelligence technologies, and supporting the clean energy transition. The Gateway will bring together Canadian and Indo-Pacific expertise in the nuclear industry and increase opportunities for the Canadian nuclear industry to supply products and services – growing our footprint in the region and creating good, well-paying jobs. It will also highlight Canada’s profile as a responsible leader in the nuclear space and a reliable commercial and investment partner.”
A lot of work has been done, by operators and advocates, to get to this latest prerequisite for building new reactors: ambition.
endnotes:
[i] Data as of the end of 2023 according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Power Reactor Information System (PRIS)
[ii] Financial times. Western groups step up efforts to win nuclear contracts in eastern Europe